Crisis of Confidence

Conference Board's latest report paints an ambivalent picture

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased by 2.2 points in February to 91.2 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased by 1.8 points to 120.0 in February. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose by 4.8 points to 72.0. The cutoff for preliminary results was February 17, 2026.

“Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).”

The Present Situation Index continued to decline, as net views on current business conditions fell to +0.7%. Perceptions of employment conditions improved slightly, with the labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get”—rising 0.6 ppts to +7.4%. All three Expectations Index components advanced slightly in February: expectations for business and labor market conditions six months from now were less negative, while expectations for incomes were more positive.

Among demographic groups, confidence on a six-month moving average basis ticked upward in February for consumers under age 35, which continued to be the most optimistic group. Confidence edged down for respondents 35 and older. Relatedly, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence among Generation Z rose, consistent with soundings from the under-age 35 group, but fell among other generations. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to dip for most brackets. Consumer confidence by political affiliation revived among Republican and Independent voters in February after a dip in January, while Democrats were less optimistic.