Force Multipliers

Weather, war, and energy intersect in the first half of 2026

The halfway point of 2026 can be marked by an intersection of weather extremes, geopolitical tensions, and energy security, with climate impacts, severe storms, and global energy policy decisions shaping both environmental and political landscapes. 

On June 23, the UN Secretary-General delivered a special address at London Climate Action Week, linking the worsening climate crisis and growing energy insecurity to continued fossil fuel dependence. He called for accelerating the transition to renewable energy as the cornerstone of true energy security, affordability, and resilience, while urging urgent methane emission cuts.

This came amid broader scientific consensus that global warming from 2015–2025 accelerated more than in any previous decade, with compound drought–heatwave events nearly eightfold since the early 2000s.

Solar storms, including solar radiation storms, have been a heightened topic of discussion in 2026.-NOAA graphic

June opened with a high-impact weather pattern across North America.

Central Illinois, for one, experienced two consecutive days of severe storms June 10-11, producing 12 tornadoes, including EF3 events in Washburn and Long Point–Streator, according to the National Weather Service. Scattered thunderstorms across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana brought localized wind damage, hail, flooding, and at least one brief tornado near Huntley. These events coincided with heightened wildfire risk in some regions and flash flood potential in others, as early tropical moisture from the Eastern and Central Pacific influenced weather systems. On June 24, two large strike-slip earthquakes affected northwestern and central Venezuela, causing at least 3,800 deaths.

While energy pundits aren’t quick to take sides during global conflicts, such as those in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine, they certainly voice their opinions on the effects war can have on the energy industry. The UN’s climate–energy address suggested a period of heightened geopolitical tension over energy security.

These three major factors are worth monitoring through the rest of the summer and calendar year.